The short answer: Urbanation's read on September is that the GTA slid back into buyer's territory, and the reason is confidence, not a flood of homes. Sales fell 9% year over year, the steepest annual drop since January. New listings fell even faster, down 14.4% for a ninth straight month. Yet the sales-to-new-listings ratio still dropped to 31% and months of supply climbed to 5.2. The average price held above $1 million at $1,006,409, down 5.1%. The buyers who are active have the leverage. Most would-be buyers and sellers are simply waiting.
Every month Urbanation Inc. prepares a GTA resale market update for Royal LePage Signature Realty, built on the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board's data. I went through the September 2026 presentation and pulled out what I think matters most for anyone buying or selling in Toronto right now. The numbers and the analysis below are Urbanation's. The takeaways for your situation are mine.
The GTA in September 2026 at a glance
Total sales: 5,040, down 9.0% year over year and 27% below the 10-year average
New listings: 16,500, down 14.4%, a ninth straight monthly decline
Active listings: 26,131, down 9.3% but still 37% above the 10-year average
Sales-to-new-listings ratio: 31%, down from 42% in August and the lowest since January
Months of supply: 5.2, above five for the first time since January
Average price: $1,006,409, down 5.1%, a 20th straight month of annual declines
Source: Urbanation, based on TRREB data.
1. Sales posted their weakest annual result since January
Urbanation's headline is that the market lost momentum in September. The 5,040 sales were 9% below last September and 27% below the 10-year September average of 6,874.
The part I found most useful was the quarterly view. Seasonally adjusted sales firmed through spring, with Q2 growth of 7.6%. Q3 reversed that with a 4% decline. Urbanation's conclusion is blunt: with inventory ample and the regional economy stable, the pullback reflects a loss of confidence rather than a shortage of homes.
That matches what I'm seeing on the ground. Buyers aren't gone. They're hesitating.
2. Sellers are retreating, and that is what's holding prices up
New listings fell 14.4% to 16,500, the ninth consecutive monthly decline. Active listings dropped 9.3% to 26,131.
Urbanation's explanation: with prices still easing, would-be sellers who don't have to move are waiting rather than listing into a soft market. That restraint keeps supply from piling up, which is the main reason prices are drifting lower rather than falling hard. Inventory is still 37% above its 10-year average, so there is plenty of choice. It just isn't growing.
3. The market slid back into buyer's territory
Two balance measures moved the same direction in September:
Sales-to-new-listings ratio: 31%. Down from 42% in August and below the 40% line Urbanation uses to mark a balanced market. Anything below 40% means buyers have the upper hand.
Months of supply: 5.2. Above five for the first time since January. The 10-year September average is 3.1.
Listings still fell faster than sales year over year, but the month-to-month shift restored real negotiating room for buyers who are active. If you're one of them, this is the window.
4. Prices held above $1 million but posted their steepest drop in six months
The average price came in at $1,006,409, down 5.1% year over year. That is the 20th consecutive month of annual declines and the largest since March. Urbanation puts the average about 25% below the February 2022 peak of roughly $1.34 million.
Their forward view is cautious. With supply back above five months and the slower winter season ahead, they say the case for near-term price stabilization has weakened. I'd agree. I don't expect a sharp drop, but I don't expect a floor this winter either.
5. Semi-detached is the tightest segment, condos are still looking for a floor
Sales fell in every housing type:
Detached: sales down 8.7%, 5.1 months of supply, average price $1,292,000
Semi, row and townhouse: sales down 11.2%, 4.2 months of supply (semis alone 3.0), average price $891,000
Condo apartment: sales down 7.8%, 6.3 months of supply, average price $605,257
Row and townhouse product was the softest on sales at -13%. Semi-detached homes remain the tightest segment at just 3.0 months of supply, which is close to balanced. Condos are the loosest at a seven-month high of 6.3 months, and the weakest on price. The $605,257 condo average fell 7.7% and is the lowest for any September since 2019.
6. The condo market has become a barbell
This was the most striking chart in the deck. Condos under $500,000 made up 45% of all condo sales in September, up from 27% a year ago. Volume in that band rose 54%. It was the only condo price range that grew.
Every band between $500,000 and $1.5 million lost share. Only the $1.5 million-plus top end held its ground.
Urbanation calls it a barbell: entry-level and investor buyers chasing affordability on one end, a thin band of high-end activity on the other, and a hollow middle. If you own a condo in the $600,000 to $900,000 range, this is why your showings have been quiet.
7. Low-rise demand is concentrated at the entry level too
The same pattern shows up in houses. Low-rise sales under $600,000 jumped 40% year over year and the $600,000 to $699,000 band rose 13%. Every band above $800,000 declined, with the biggest drops between $1.25 million and $1.75 million. Homes under $900,000 accounted for 41% of low-rise sales, up from 35% a year ago.
Urbanation credits softer prices and the full HST rebate on new homes for pulling demand toward the entry level.
8. The City of Toronto keeps outpacing the 905
This is the section I care most about for my clients in Midtown and North Toronto.
Detached sales: down 4% in the City of Toronto versus down 12% in the 905
Detached average price: $1,562,966 in the City versus $1,228,698 in the 905
Detached months of supply: 4.5 in the City versus 5.3 in the 905
Condo sales: down 5% in the City versus down 12% in the 905
Condo average price: down 6% in the City versus down 12% in the 905
Semi, row and town average price: up 2% in the City versus down 5% in the 905
Toronto detached sales slipped just 4% versus 12% across the 905, on a tighter 4.5 months of supply. Toronto condos held up better on both sales and price. And semi, row and townhouse prices actually rose 2% in the City while falling 5% in the suburbs.
Within the City, Toronto Central detached averaged $2,351,668 on 6.4 months of supply, the loosest of the three Toronto districts. Toronto Central semi, row and town sales were up 4% year over year at an average of $1,294,618.
Urbanation attributes the split to the structural pull of the urban core, its diverse end-user base, and selective investor interest in well-located product. In plain terms: central, walkable, transit-served neighbourhoods are holding value better than the outer suburbs.
Urbanation's five key takeaways
Here is how Urbanation summed up the month, in my words:
A market short on urgency. Buyers who are active hold the leverage. Most would-be buyers and sellers are content to wait.
Confidence is the swing factor. Sales and consumer confidence have tracked each other all year, soft in January, firmer in spring, soft again now. The latest hit came from the trade dispute with the United States after Canada walked away from talks and new tariffs took effect.
Borrowing costs have turned higher. The five-year Government of Canada yield climbed to around 3.7% and discounted five-year fixed rates moved into the mid-4% range. Markets see the Bank of Canada's October 28 decision as a coin flip and are pricing hikes, not cuts, through 2027.
The hesitation is about uncertainty, not fundamentals. Toronto employment is still growing, provincial GDP expanded 3.3% in Q2, and population estimates were revised back to slight growth.
Supply restraint sets the stage for eventual stabilization. Reluctant sellers are sitting out, the post-2022 inventory glut keeps receding, condo investor stock is slowly being absorbed, and weak new construction points to the largest-ever drop in completions ahead. For now, elevated supply and winter make near-term stabilization less likely. A durable recovery hinges on confidence returning.
What this means for you
If you're buying: This is a genuine buyer's window. A 31% ratio and 5.2 months of supply give you room to negotiate, especially on condos and on anything that has been sitting. Lock in a rate hold now in case fixed rates keep climbing.
If you're selling: Fewer competing listings is your advantage, but only if you price to today's market on day one. Buyers are hesitant, not absent, and they are rewarding homes that are priced right and ignoring the rest. If you don't have to move, waiting is a legitimate option and plenty of your neighbours are doing exactly that.
If you own a mid-range condo: The $600,000 to $900,000 band is the weakest part of the market. If you need to sell, price sharply and expect a longer runway. If you can hold, the shrinking construction pipeline is the long-term case for patience.
In Midtown and North Toronto: The City is outperforming the 905 on nearly every measure, and central semis and townhouses are the one segment where prices are actually up. Well-located, end-user product is the steadiest footing in this market.
Frequently asked questions
Is the GTA a buyer's market in September 2026? Yes. Urbanation's sales-to-new-listings ratio was 31%, well below the 40% balanced-market line, and months of supply rose to 5.2.
What was the average GTA home price in September 2026? $1,006,409, down 5.1% year over year and about 25% below the February 2022 peak.
Which housing type is holding up best? Semi-detached homes, at 3.0 months of supply. Condo apartments are the loosest at 6.3 months and posted the biggest price decline at 7.7%.
Why are condo sales rising under $500,000 while everything else falls? Softer prices have pulled entry-level and investor buyers into the most affordable band, which rose 54% year over year. Every band between $500,000 and $1.5 million lost share.
Is Toronto doing better than the suburbs? Yes. City of Toronto detached sales fell 4% versus 12% in the 905, condo prices fell 6% versus 12%, and semi, row and townhouse prices rose 2% in the City while falling 5% in the 905.
Want to know what this means for your street?
Urbanation's data covers the whole GTA. If you're buying or selling in Midtown, North Toronto or anywhere in the city, I'll walk you through what these numbers mean for your specific home and neighbourhood.
Antony Malfara, Broker and Co-Team Lead, Property Boys, Royal LePage Signature Realty, Brokerage
Source: Urbanation Inc., GTA Resale Housing Market Update, September 2026, prepared for Royal LePage Signature Realty and based on data released by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. All statistics and market analysis are Urbanation's. Interpretation and advice are my own. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with a brokerage.
Thinking about moving here?
I'll send you a personalized list of available homes and projects in this area — no pressure, no spam.